Draw bias set to help hot Hoge

renato paratore mallorca 2021.jpg

It’s a busy week with a trio of events across the globe and our man has outsiders to trade in all three…

We came pretty close to a winner last week. Adam Svensson met the first lay target a couple of times at the Honda Classic, trading at as low as 6.05/1 on both Saturday and Sunday but he ultimately came up short thanks to a decidedly poor back nine on Sunday.

In an attempt to get one to trade even lower or get across the line, I’ve got selections at all three of this week’s events, starting with the biggy – the Arnold Palmer Invitaional.

Draw bias set to help hot Hoge

It’s not uncommon for someone that’s waited a while for their maiden win to go in again soon after and at a juicy price, I’m happy to try the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am winner, Tom Hoge, now that he’s been assigned an afternoon tee time on day one.

There’s often a draw bias at the Arnold Palmer and the current forecast suggests the win is going to pick up on Friday afternoon so those drawn late-early should be advantaged.

Following his recent success, Hoge has been drawn in a marque group on Thursday afternoon alongside Viktor Hovland and Billy Horschel and after a missed cut at the Genesis Invitational, I fancy he can bounce back to form.

I’m not unduly worried about that weekend off as a missed cut’s been a plus so far this year and his 2022 form figures read an intriguing MC-2-MC-1-14-MC.

Hoge also missed the cut here 12 months ago but his 26th on debut in 2018 and his 15th place finish in his only other start here, in 2020, suggest the venue suits.

Back 1 ½ u Tom Hoge @ 120.0119/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

Ryder Cup captain worth chancing

As highlighted in the preview, course form is important here and so too is links form so the 2015 Open winner, Zach Johnson, comes into the reckoning at a huge price.

With five top-tens at Bay Hill, he certainly has the course form in the bank and it’s going to be interesting to see how he responds in his first start after being named as the 2023 US Ryder Cup captain.

It certainly gave Davis Love III a fillip as he went and won the Wyndham Championship at odds of 1000.0 soon after so I’m happy to chance Zach at half that price.

Back ½ u Zach Johnson @ 500.0499/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

Werenski chanced to take the Puerto Rico pot

As highlighted in the Puerto Rico Open preview, outsiders have a stellar record and they don’t need to be in any sort of form.

When asked after his victory as to whether he’d seen his performance coming, the 2017 champ, DA Points, was fairly unequivocal with his response three years ago.

“You know, I didn’t. I’d been playing well at home and then I kinda took a little step back right before I came but when I made a switch with my putter it allowed me to not be so hard on the rest of my game.”

With that in mind, I’m not going to be put off by Richy Werenski’s current woeful form or for that matter, his two missed cuts here previously.

This time last year, having won the Barracuda Championship in 2020, Werenski was in the line-up in the Arnold Palmer – where he finished fourth! That’s infinitely better form than he’s shown of late but maybe that memory will inspire him?

He has form at a few venues that aren’t dissimilar to this one – most notably a third at Mayakoba in 2018.

Werenski’s my only bet here for the column but I’ve also backed the local lad, Rafael Campos, and multiple PGA Tour winner, Ted Potter Jr, who both have decent form figures at the venue.

Back 1 ½ u Ricki Werenski @ 150.0149/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

Kinhult looking to kick on in Kenya

As highlighted in the preview, I backed England’s Ross McGowan in the Kenya Open on Monday and he’s just about held his price so he could have been a selection for the column but instead, I’m adding two more – Marcus Kinhult and Renato Paratore.

Kinult won an Nordic Golf League event in Spain last week and he was 12th at the this course on his only previous visit in 2017.

I’m not sure last week’s victory is too much to shout about but it’s confidence builder that the talented young Swede was badly in need off.

His form hasn’t been great of late but given he won the British Masters in 2019 and that he lost a playoff at the Nedbank later that year, we know he has ability.

Back 1 ½ u Marcus Kinhult @ 140.0139/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

Perfect venue for Paratore

My final pick of the week also won the British Masters, a year after Kinhult, but unlike the Swede, Italy’s Renato Paratore has no current form to boost his credentials.

renato paratore mallorca 2021.jpg

Paratore has been lightly raced this year and he’s missed the cut on all three of his starts but I’m still happy to a chance him at a huge price.

Italians have won two of the last three renewals of this event and this venue, Muthaiga, looks perfect for Paratore.

His first DP World Tour win was at the Nordea Masters at a tree-lined track in 2017 and he has an abundance of form at venues I thought would correlate nicely with this one. Most notably, Crans and Valderrama.

Back 1 u Renato Paratore @ 230.0229/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

I’ll be back on Friday with the In-Play Blog.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

Author: Ellen Garcia